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In 2020, the Jubilee government struck a deal with a French consortium to dual the busy highway linking Nairobi to Western Kenya. But after taking office, the Kenya Kwanza administration scrapped the agreement, arguing it was too expensive, and ordered a fresh tender.
Now, the road is set to go to a new team led by China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and the National Social Security Fund (NSSF). And here’s the kicker: motorists could pay up to Ksh625 more in toll fees under the new plan.
So, what changed? In this article, we unpack both proposals, including costs, financing models, and the real impact on taxpayers and road users.
The project: Both project entails the expansion of Nairobi – Nakuru – Mau Summit (175 Km) and Nairobi –Mai Mahiu – Naivasha (58km) into a 4 lane highway under the Public–Private Partnership (PPP) framework.
The initial project, under a consortium led by Vinci Highways and Meridiam SAS, was a flagship deal signed in September 2020 during former President Uhuru Kenyatta’s trip to France.
The PPP deal was structured as a 30-year Design, Build, Finance, Operate, Maintain, and Transfer (DBFOMT) concession.
The Key structures of the deal were;
As a result of cancelling the deal with the French company, the government paid a Ksh7 billlion fine.
The new deal involves NSSF and a consortium of the China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC), which has undertaken other projects such as the Nairobi Expressway and the Standard Gauge Railway.
In the deal, NSSF plans to invest between Ksh20 billion and Ksh25 billion for a 30-year stake in the consortium, expecting returns through toll collections.
The Key structures of the deal are;
In the French deal, motorists with a small car would have been charged $6 (Ksh775 under the current exchange rate) from Nairobi – Nakuru – Mau Summit (175 kilometers), while drivers were to pay over Ksh6,000 to use the road.
"When we looked at the road (the Mau Summit Road), it was actually going to be the biggest infrastructure transaction in Africa. Unfortunately, that transaction was going to cost the user $6 (Ksh800) to drive 175 kilometers in a small car and close to $50 (Ksh6,641) for one truck to go 175 kilometers," Roads PS Joseph Mbugua stated in 2024 at the Amcham Business Summit.
Under the NSSF-CRBC deal, the proposed toll fee is set at Ksh8 per kilometer with a 1% escalation rate per annum. Based on these estimations, motorists traveling from Nairobi – Nakuru – Mau Summit (175 kilometers) will pay up to Ksh1,400 in toll fees for a one-way trip once the project is completed. A return journey will cost Ksh2,800.
There is no specification whether trucks will be charged at a different rate from the Ksh8 per kilometer.
Construction Cost: Based on the current exchange rate, the French deal would have cost more by Ksh4 billion.
Toll fee: The French deal would have been cheaper for small car owners (Ksh775 vs Ksh1,400). This translates to a saving of Ksh625 for a one-way trip and Ksh1,250 for a return trip.
Timelines: While both deals had a 30-year concession deal, the consortium of NSSF and CRBC will take less time to construct, by 18 months (1 year and 6 months).
Exorbitant Toll Fees: The proposed toll rates, intended to allow the consortium to recoup its high investment, were deemed unaffordable by the new administration and the public. Reports indicated small vehicles would have paid around Ksh775 for the entire 175km trip, with heavy trucks facing fees as high as Ksh 6,500. However, the estimates of the new deal indicate that motorists will pay more under the CRBC-NSSF proposal.
The Minimum Revenue Guarantee: As explained by the government would have been exposed to significant traffic-volume risk, often called a Minimum Revenue Guarantee. This clause meant that if traffic projections were too optimistic, or if the high tolls deterred motorists, the government—and by extension, the taxpayer—would be obligated to top up the private partner's revenue shortfall. According to KeNHA, the new deal has both the government together with the consortium sharing the risks.
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